Publications

2026

38. Paik, S., Kim, D., An, S. I., Park, S. E., King, A. D., Min, S. K., Liu, C., & Shin, J. (2026)

    Intensification of East Asian summer extreme precipitation under a net-zero anthropogenic CO₂ emission scenario

    Science Advances, 12(41), eaec9366 CESM2 NZ/NN

37. Shin, J., Park, S. W., Kug, J. S., An, S. I., ... & Kim, J. S. (2026)

    Negative CO₂ emissions for long-term mitigation of extremes in the land hydrological cycle

    Nature Communications, 17, 4347 CESM2 NZ/NN

36. Cheng, Y., Olson, R., Shin, J., An, S. I., Chang, W. (2026)

    Long-Term Historical Slowdown in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

    Environmetrics, 37(4), e70101 CESM1-CDR

35. Park, B. J., Min, S. K., An, S. I., Yeh, S. W., Son, S. W., Kug, J. S., Jun, S. Y., Shin, J., Ryu, Y. H., & Park, I. H. (2026)

    Hemispheric contrast in summer season duration responses to CO₂ removal

    Communications Earth & Environment, 7, 557 CESM1-CDR

34. Yang, Y. M., Shin, J., Park, J. H., An, S. I., Wang, B., & Khourdajie, A. (2026)

    Reduced mid-latitude El Niño-related precipitation due to Southern Ocean warming under abrupt CO₂ change scenarios

    Climate Dynamics, 64(1), 3 CESM1-CDR

2025

33. Park, S. W., Mun, J. H., Lee, H., Steinert, N. J., An, S. I., Shin, J., & Kug, J. S. (2025)

    Continued permafrost ecosystem carbon loss under net-zero and negative emissions

    Science Advances, 11(7), eadn8819 CESM2 NZ/NN

32. Geng, X., Oh, J. H., Shin, Y., Shin, J., Noh, K. M., Park, S. W., & Kug, J. S. (2025)

    Nonmonotonic Future Changes in the North Atlantic Warming Hole under a Fast CO₂ Emission Scenario

    Journal of Climate, 38(21), 6011–6023

31. Heo, E. S., An, S. I., & Shin, J. (2025)

    Asymmetric impact of the tropical Pacific on summertime Arctic sea ice trends under increasing and decreasing greenhouse gases

    Geophysical Research Letters, 52(14), e2025GL116352 CESM1-CDR

30. Li, Z. B., Liu, C., Azorin-Molina, C., An, S. I., Zhao, Y., Xu, Y., Shin, J., Chen, D., & Shen, C. (2025)

    Asymmetric response of Northern Hemisphere near-surface wind speed to CO₂ removal

    Weather and Climate Dynamics, 6(4), 1107–1117 CESM1-CDR

2024

29. Yang, Y. M., Shin, J., Park, S. W., Park, J. H., An, S. I., Kug, J. S., ... & Im, N. (2024)

    Fast reduction of Atlantic SST threatens Europe-wide gross primary productivity under positive and negative CO₂ emissions

    npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 7(1), 117 Equal-contribution first author CESM1-CDR

28. Hwang, J., Son, S. W., An, S. I., Kug, J. S., Yeh, S. W., Shin, J. (2024)

    Basin-dependent response of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking frequency to CO₂ removal

    npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 7, 111 CESM1-CDR

27. Oh, J. H., Kug, J. S., An, S. I., Jin, F. F., McPhaden, M. J., & Shin, J. (2024)

    Emergent climate change patterns originating from deep ocean warming in climate mitigation scenarios

    Nature Climate Change, 14(3), 260–266 CESM1-CDR

26. Kim, G. I., Oh, J. H., Shin, N. Y., An, S. I., Yeh, S. W., Shin, J., & Kug, J. S. (2024)

    Deep ocean warming-induced El Niño changes

    Nature Communications, 15(1), 6225 CESM1-CDR

25. Hwang, J., Son, S. W., Garfinkel, C. I., Woollings, T., Yoon, H., An, S. I., ... & Shin, J. (2024)

    Asymmetric hysteresis response of mid-latitude storm tracks to CO₂ removal

    Nature Climate Change, 14(5), 496–503 CESM1-CDR

24. Im, N., Kim, D., An, S. I., Paik, S., Kim, S. K., Shin, J., ... & Oh, H. (2024)

    Hysteresis of European summer precipitation under a symmetric CO₂ ramp-up and ramp-down pathway

    Environmental Research Letters, 19(7), 074030 CESM1-CDR

23. Kim, H. J., Kim, J. S., An, S. I., Shin, J., Oh, J. H., & Kug, J. S. (2024)

    Pervasive fire danger continued under a negative emission scenario

    Nature Communications, 15(1), 10010 CESM1-CDR

22. Park, I. H., Yeh, S. W., Min, S. K., An, S. I., Xie, S. P., & Shin, J. (2024)

    Irreversible changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection to CO₂ forcing

    Communications Earth & Environment, 5(1), 659 CESM1-CDR

21. Paik, S., Kim, D., An, S. I., Oh, H., Shin, J., Goswami, B. B., ... & Mondal, S. K. (2024)

    Exploring causes of distinct regional and subseasonal Indian summer monsoon precipitation responses to CO₂ removal

    npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 7(1), 305 CESM1-CDR

2023

20. Liu, C., An, S. I., Jin, F. F., Stuecker, M. F., Zhang, W., Kug, J. S., ..., Shin, J., & Kim, S. K. (2023)

    ENSO skewness hysteresis and associated changes in strong El Niño under a CO₂ removal scenario

    npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 6(1), 117 CESM1-CDR

19. Liu, C., An, S. I., Jin, F. F., Shin, J., Kug, J. S., Zhang, W., ... & Kim, S. K. (2023)

    Hysteresis of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to CO₂ forcing

    Science Advances, 9(31), eadh8442 CESM1-CDR

18. Sung, M. K., An, S. I., Shin, J., Park, J. H., Yang, Y. M., Kim, H. J., & Chang, M. (2023)

    Ocean fronts as decadal thermostats modulating continental warming hiatus

    Nature Communications, 14(1), 7777 CESM1-CDR

17. Mondal, S. K., An, S. I., Min, S. K., Kim, S. K., Shin, J., Paik, S., ... & Liu, C. (2023)

    Hysteresis and irreversibility of global extreme precipitation to anthropogenic CO₂ emission

    Weather and Climate Extremes, 40, 100561 CESM1-CDR

16. Lee, Y. H., Yeh, S. W., Hong, J. S., Shin, J., & An, S. I. (2023)

    Regime shift increase in East Asia's summer extreme hot day frequency across the late 1990s

    International Journal of Climatology, 43(5), 2305–2317 CESM1-CDR

15. Paik, S., An, S. I., Min, S. K., King, A. D., Shin, J. (2023)

    Hysteretic behavior of global to regional monsoon area under CO₂ ramp-up and ramp-down

    Earth's Future, 11(7), e2022EF003434 CESM1-CDR

14. Kim, S., Choi, Y. J., Son, S. W., An, S. I., Kug, J. S., Yeh, S. W., Shin, J. (2023)

    Hemispherically asymmetric Hadley cell response to CO₂ removal

    Science Advances, 9(30), eadg1801 CESM1-CDR

13. Pathirana, G., Oh, J. H., Cai, W., An, S. I., Min, S. K., Jo, S. Y., Shin, J., Kug, J. S. (2023)

    Increase in convective extreme El Niño events in a CO₂ removal scenario

    Science Advances, 9(25), eadh2412 CESM1-CDR

2022

12. Jo, S. Y., Seong, M. G., Min, S. K., Kug, J. S., Yeh, S. W., An, S. I., ... & Shin, J. (2022)

    Hysteresis behaviors in East Asian Extreme Precipitation Frequency to CO₂ Pathway

    Geophysical Research Letters, 49(18), e2022GL099814 CESM1-CDR

11. Oh, J. H., An, S. I., Shin, J., & Kug, J. S. (2022)

    Centennial memory of the Arctic Ocean for future Arctic climate recovery in response to a carbon dioxide removal

    Earth's Future, 10(8), e2022EF002804 CESM1-CDR

10. Oh, H., An, S. I., Shin, J., Yeh, S. W., Min, S. K., Son, S. W., & Kug, J. S. (2022)

    Contrasting hysteresis behaviors of northern Hemisphere land monsoon precipitation to CO₂ pathways

    Earth's Future, 10(6), e2021EF002623 CESM1-CDR

9. An, S. I., Park, S. E., Shin, J., Yang, Y. M., Yeh, S. W., Son, S. W., & Kug, J. S. (2022)

   General circulation and global heat transport in a quadrupling CO₂ pulse experiment

   Scientific Reports, 12, 11569 CESM1-CDR

8. An, S. I., Park, H. J., Kim, S. K., Shin, J., Yeh, S. W., & Kug, J. S. (2022)

   Intensity changes of Indian Ocean dipole mode in a carbon dioxide removal scenario

   npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 5, 20 CESM1-CDR

7. Song, S. Y., Yeh, S. W., An, S. I., Kug, J. S., Min, S. K., Son, S. W., & Shin, J. (2022)

   Asymmetrical response of summer rainfall in East Asia to CO₂ forcing

   Science Bulletin, 67(2), 213–222 CESM1-CDR

6. Kug, J. S., Oh, J. H., An, S. I., Yeh, S. W., Min, S. K., Son, S. W., ... & Shin, J. (2022)

   Hysteresis of the intertropical convergence zone to CO₂ forcing

   Nature Climate Change, 12(1), 47–53 CESM1-CDR

5. Kim, S. K., Shin, J., An, S. I., Kim, H. J., Im, N., Xie, S. P., ... & Yeh, S. W. (2022)

   Widespread irreversible changes in surface temperature and precipitation in response to CO₂ forcing

   Nature Climate Change, 12(9), 834–840 CESM1-CDR

2021

4. Yeh, S. W., Song, S. Y., Allan, R. P., An, S. I., & Shin, J. (2021)

   Contrasting response of hydrological cycle over land and ocean to a changing CO₂ pathway

   npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 4, 53 CESM1-CDR

3. An, S. I., Shin, J., Yeh, S. W., Son, S. W., Kug, J. S., Min, S. K., & Kim, H. J. (2021)

   Global cooling hiatus driven by an AMOC overshoot in a carbon dioxide removal scenario

   Earth's Future, 9(7), e2021EF002165 CESM1-CDR

2019

2. Shin, J., Olson, R., & An, S. I. (2019)

   Improved probabilistic twenty-first century projections of sea surface temperature over East Asian marginal seas by considering uncertainty owing to model error and internal variability

   Climate Dynamics, 53(9–10), 6075–6087

2018

1. Shin, J., Olson, R., & An, S. I. (2018)

   Projected heat wave characteristics over the Korean Peninsula during the twenty-first century

   Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 54(1), 53–61

Submitted and in preparation

• Shin, J., An, S. I., Kug, J. S., Yeh, S. W., Son, S. W., Min, S. K., Yang, Y. M., & Park, J. H. Long-lasting Southern Ocean warming in a carbon dioxide removal scenario through warm water upwelling and sea ice-albedo feedback. (In preparation).

• Shin, J., Kwon, Y. O., Danabasoglu, G., Levy, M. N., Liang, Y. C., Lima, D. I., Liu, G., and Tseng, Y. H. Multi-Column Ocean Model (MCOM): A New 1-Dimensional Ocean Model in CESM2. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth System (Submitted).

• Liu, G., Kwon, Y. O., Buckley, M., Frankignoul, C., and Shin, J. Highly persistent subpolar Atlantic sea surface temperatures driven by re-emergence and 1-D ocean dynamics. Science Advances (Submitted).